How long will my super last?

How long your super lasts depends on how much you spend, investment returns, inflation, and whether you'll also get some Age Pension along the way. Because nobody can predict markets or exactly how long they'll live, the honest answer isn't a single number. It's a handful of scenarios worth testing before you settle on a spending plan .

Why "how long will it last" isn't a single-number question

A single forecast, "your money lasts 27 years," feels precise. It's also misleading. Markets don't move in a straight line, and neither does your spending. A forecast built on one set of assumptions can create false confidence in a strong-market scenario, or unnecessary fear in a conservative one.

The more useful question isn't "what's the number." It's "what happens under a few different, realistic scenarios, and can I live with the range."

The three scenarios worth running

A good starting set is an optimistic scenario, a middle-of-the-road scenario, and a tough one. Test how your balance holds up under each, particularly what happens if markets fall in the first few years of retirement, historically one of the riskiest windows, since early losses have less time to recover from.

Age Pension eligibility, if you qualify for some, acts as a backstop in the tougher scenarios for many retirees. It's worth including in the modelling rather than ignoring it.

Setting a spending rule instead of chasing a single answer

Once you've seen the range across scenarios, the practical next step is a spending rule with guardrails, an amount you draw normally, with a pre-agreed adjustment if markets have a genuinely weak run. This turns "will it last" from a source of ongoing anxiety into something you check and adjust periodically, rather than worry about daily.

What this means for you

The goal isn't certainty, nobody can offer that honestly. It's a plan that holds up reasonably well across a realistic range of futures, with a clear trigger for when to adjust.

A short plan to work from

1. Estimate your annual spending, split into essentials and discretionary.
2. Run at least three scenarios (optimistic, middle, tough) through a retirement planning calculator.
3. Choose a spending rule and a range you'd genuinely be comfortable with in the tougher scenario.
4. Set review dates, at least annually, and after any major market move or life change. Further information

Running your own numbers through a real set of scenarios, not just one projection, is exactly what SuperYears is being built to help with.

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General information only. This does not constitute personal financial advice. You should consider seeking advice from a licensed financial planner before making any financial decisions. superyears.com.au/disclaimer

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